Local dynamics of the coffee rust disease and the potential effect of shade

Abstract

In this paper we present a mode that incorporates two levels of dynamic structuring of the coffee rust disease (caused by the rust fungus, Hemileia vastatrix). First, two distinct spatial scales of transmission dynamics are interrogated with respect to the resultant structure of catastrophic transitions of epidemics. Second the effect of management style, especially the well-known issue of shade management, is added to the base-line model. The final structure includes a simple one-to-one functional structure of disease incidence as a function as well as a classical critical transition structure, and finally a hysteretic loop. These qualitative structures accord well with the recent history of the coffee rust disease.