Quantifying knowledge with a new calculus for belief functions - a generalization of probability theory

Abstract

We first show that there are practical situations in for instance forensic and gambling settings, in which applying classical probability theory, that is, based on the axioms of Kolmogorov, is problematic. We then introduce and discuss Shafer belief functions. Technically, Shafer belief functions generalize probability distributions. Philosophically, they pertain to individual or shared knowledge of facts, rather than to facts themselves, and therefore can be interpreted as generalizing epistemic probability, that is, probability theory interpreted epistemologically. Belief functions are more flexible and better suited to deal with certain types of uncertainty than classical probability distributions. We develop a new calculus for belief functions which does not use the much criticized Dempster's rule of combination, by generalizing the classical notions of conditioning and independence in a natural and uncontroversial way. Using this calculus, we explain our rejection of Dempster's rule in detail. We apply the new theory to a number of examples, including a gambling example and an example in a forensic setting. We prove a law of large numbers for belief functions and offer a betting interpretation similar to the Dutch Book Theorem for probability distributions.