Optimal Strategy in Basketball

Abstract

This book chapter reviews some of the major principles associated with optimal strategy in basketball. In particular, we consider the principles of allocative efficiency (optimal allocation of shots between offensive options), dynamic efficiency (optimal shot selection in the face of pressure from the shot clock), and the risk/reward tradeoff (strategic manipulation of outcome variance). For each principle, we provide a simple example of a strategic problem and show how it can be described analytically. We then review general analytical results and provide an overview of existing statistical studies. A number of open challenges in basketball analysis are highlighted.