Spiral orbits and oscillations in historical evolution of empires

Abstract

We introduce the concept of metaasabiya, the second non-material resource, to the asabiya theory of historical dynamics. We find that the resulting three variable dynamical system has peculiar features such as repelling or attracting axes and spiralling orbits in the phase space. Depending on the initial state, the system can go through series of oscillatory rises and falls, mimicking the geopolitical evolution of real-world polities. These distinctive features, absent in conventional Lotka-Volterra type biological systems, reveal the hidden richness inherent in the asabiya theory.