Dynamic communicability and epidemic spread: a case study on an empirical dynamic contact network

Abstract

We analyze a recently proposed temporal centrality measure applied to an empirical network based on person-to-person contacts in an emergency department of a busy urban hospital. We show that temporal centrality identifies a distinct set of top-spreaders than centrality based on the time-aggregated binarized contact matrix, so that taken together, the accuracy of capturing top-spreaders improves significantly. However, with respect to predicting epidemic outcome, the temporal measure does not necessarily outperform less complex measures. Our results also show that other temporal markers such as duration observed and the time of first appearance in the the network can be used in a simple predictive model to generate predictions that capture the trend of the observed data remarkably well.