First-order phase transitions in outbreaks of co-infectious diseases and the extended general epidemic process

Abstract

In co-infections, positive feedback between multiple diseases can accelerate outbreaks. In a recent letter Chen, Ghanbarnejad, Cai, and Grassberger (CGCG) introduced a spatially homogeneous mean-field model system for such co-infections, and studied this system numerically with focus on the possible existence of discontinuous phase transitions. We show that their model coincides in mean-field theory with the homogenous limit of the extended general epidemic process (EGEP). Studying the latter analytically, we argue that the discontinuous transition observed by CGCG is basically a spinodal phase transition and not a first-order transition with phase-coexistence. We derive the conditions for this spinodal transition along with predictions for important quantities such as the magnitude of the discontinuity. We also shed light on a true first-order transition with phase-coexistence by discussing the EGEP with spatial inhomogeneities.