Testing the Quantal Response Hypothesis

Abstract

This paper develops a non-parametric test for consistency of players' behavior in a series of games with the Quantal Response Equilibrium (QRE). The test exploits a characterization of the equilibrium choice probabilities in any structural QRE as the gradient of a convex function, which thus satisfies the cyclic monotonicity inequalities. Our testing procedure utilizes recent econometric results for moment inequality models. We assess our test using lab experimental data from a series of generalized matching pennies games. We reject the QRE hypothesis in the pooled data, but it cannot be rejected in the individual data for over half of the subjects.