Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki Smallpox Data

Abstract

The celebrated Abakaliki smallpox data have appeared numerous times in the epidemic modelling literature, but in almost all cases only a specific subset of the data is considered. There is one previous analysis of the full data set, but this relies on approximation methods to derive a likelihood. The data themselves continue to be of interest due to concerns about the possible re-emergence of smallpox as a bioterrorism weapon. We present the first full Bayesian analysis using data-augmentation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods which avoid the need for likelihood approximations. Results include estimates of basic model parameters as well as reproduction numbers and the likely path of infection. Model assessment is carried out using simulation-based methods.