Non-failable approximation method for conditioned distributions

Abstract

We consider a general method for the approximation of the distribution of a process conditioned to not hit a given set. Existing methods are based on particle system that are failable, in the sense that, in many situations , they are not well defined after a given random time. We present a method based on a new particle system which is always well define. Moreover , we provide sufficient conditions ensuring that the particle method converges uniformly in time. We also show that this method provides an approximation method for the quasi-stationary distribution of Markov processes. Our results are illustrated by their application to a neutron transport model.