Hyperbolic Discounting of the Far-Distant Future

Abstract

We prove an analogue of Weitzman's (1998) famous result that an exponential discounter who is uncertain of the appropriate exponential discount rate should discount the far-distant future using the lowest (i.e., most patient) of the possible discount rates. Our analogous result applies to a hyperbolic discounter who is uncertain about the appropriate hyperbolic discount rate. In this case, the far-distant future should be discounted using the probability-weighted harmonic mean of the possible hyperbolic discount rates.