$2^\infty$-Selmer groups, $2^\infty$-class groups, and Goldfeld's conjecture

Abstract

We prove that the $2^\infty$-class groups of the imaginary quadratic fields have the distribution predicted by the Cohen-Lenstra heuristic. Given an elliptic curve E/Q with full rational 2-torsion and no rational cyclic subgroup of order four, we analogously prove that the $2^\infty$-Selmer groups of the quadratic twists of E have distribution as predicted by Delaunay's heuristic. In particular, among the twists E^d with |d| < N, the number of curves with rank at least two is $o(N)$.