The damage inflicted by a computer virus: A new estimation method

Abstract

This paper addressed the issue of estimating the damage caused by a computer virus. First, an individual-level delayed SIR model capturing the spreading process of a digital virus is derived. Second, the damage inflicted by the virus is modeled as the sum of the economic losses and the cost for developing the antivirus. Next, the impact of different factors, including the delay and the network structure, on the damage is explored by means of computer simulations. Thereby some measures of reducing the damage of a virus are recommended. To our knowledge, this is the first time the antivirus-developing cost is taken into account when estimating the damage of a virus.