Sparse and Smooth Prior for Bayesian Linear Regression with Application to ETEX Data

Abstract

Sparsity of the solution of a linear regression model is a common requirement, and many prior distributions have been designed for this purpose. A combination of the sparsity requirement with smoothness of the solution is also common in application, however, with considerably fewer existing prior models. In this paper, we compare two prior structures, the Bayesian fused lasso (BFL) and least-squares with adaptive prior covariance matrix (LS-APC). Since only variational solution was published for the latter, we derive a Gibbs sampling algorithm for its inference and Bayesian model selection. The method is designed for high dimensional problems, therefore, we discuss numerical issues associated with evaluation of the posterior. In simulation, we show that the LS-APC prior achieves results comparable to that of the Bayesian Fused Lasso for piecewise constant parameter and outperforms the BFL for parameters of more general shapes. Another advantage of the LS-APC priors is revealed in real application to estimation of the release profile of the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX). Specifically, the LS-APC model provides more conservative uncertainty bounds when the regressor matrix is not informative.