Project Makespan Estimation: Computational Load of Interval and Point Estimates

Abstract

The estimation of project completion time is to be repeated several times in the project planning phase to reach the optimal tradeoff between time, cost, and quality. Estimation procedures provide either an interval or a point estimate. The computational load of several estimation procedures is reviewed. A multiple polynomial regression model is provided for major interval estimation procedures and shows that the accuracy in the probability model for activities is the most influential factor. The computational time does not appear to be an impeding factor, though it is larger for MonteCarlo simulation, so that the computational time can be traded off in search of a simpler estimation procedure.