Structural Break Detection in High-Dimensional Non-Stationary VAR models

Abstract

Assuming stationarity is unrealistic in many time series applications. A more realistic alternative is to allow for piecewise stationarity, where the model is allowed to change at given time points. In this article, the problem of detecting the change points in a high-dimensional piecewise vector autoregressive model (VAR) is considered. Reformulated the problem as a high-dimensional variable selection, a penalized least square estimation using total variation LASSO penalty is proposed for estimation of model parameters. It is shown that the developed method over-estimates the number of change points. A backward selection criterion is thus proposed in conjunction with the penalized least square estimator to tackle this issue. We prove that the proposed two-stage procedure consistently detects the number of change points and their locations. A block coordinate descent algorithm is developed for efficient computation of model parameters. The performance of the method is illustrated using several simulation scenarios.