Pathway for Multivariate Dependence Modeling in Long-Term Horizon of Electrical Power System

Abstract

Future electricity consumption is fundamentally uncertain and dependent on many variables such as economic activity, weather, electricity rates and demand side management. The stochasticity of system load as well as power generation from renewable energy sources (RES) (i.e., wind and solar) poses special challenges to power system planners. Increasing penetration levels of wind and solar exacerbate the uncertainty and variability that must be addressed in coming years, and can be extremely relevant to power system planners. With this paper, pathways for multivariate dependence modeling using vine copula is proposed which includes both electrical load and power generation from RES.