Block size in Geometric(p)-biased permutations

Abstract

Fix a probability distribution $\mathbf p = (p_1, p_2, \cdots)$ on the positive integers. The first block in a $\mathbf p$-biased permutation can be visualized in terms of raindrops that land at each positive integer $j$ with probability $p_j$. It is the first point $K$ so that all sites in $[1,K]$ are wet and all sites in $(K,\infty)$ are dry. For the geometric distribution $p_j= p(1-p)^{j-1}$ we show that $p \log K$ converges in probability to an explicit constant as $p$ tends to 0. Additionally, we prove that if $\mathbf p$ has a stretch exponential distribution, then $K$ is infinite with positive probability.