Modeling the Annual Growth Rate of Electricity Consumption of China in the 21st Century: Trends and Prediction

Abstract

In this paper, the annual growth rate of electricity consumption in China in the first 15 years of the 21st century is modeled using multiple linear regression. Historical data and trends of gross domestic product, fixed assets investment and share of the secondary sector in China's GDP are used to account for the observed trend and fluctuation of electricity consumption in recent years. A comparison between the proposed method and the predictions given by China Electricity Council is performed, showing that the proposed method is good at capturing the trend of the electricity consumption of China under complex social and economic background. The electricity consumptions for 2016 and 2017 are also predicted, which is helpful for energy planners and policymakers for future challenges.