When tails wag the decision: The role of distributional tails on climate impacts on decision-relevant time-scales

Abstract

Assessing and managing risks in a changing climate requires projections that account for decision-relevant uncertainties. These deep uncertainties are often approximated by ensembles of Earth-system model runs that sample only a subset of the known uncertainties. Here we demonstrate and quantify how this approach can cut off the tails of the distributions of projected climate variables such as sea-level rise. As a result, low-probability high-impact events that may drive risks can be under-represented. Neglecting the tails of this deep uncertainty may lead to overconfident projections and poor decisions when high reliabilities are important.