Optimal Stopping for Interval Estimation in Bernoulli Trials

Abstract

We propose an optimal sequential methodology for obtaining confidence intervals for a binomial proportion $\theta$. Assuming that an i.i.d. random sequence of Benoulli($\theta$) trials is observed sequentially, we are interested in designing a)~a stopping time $T$ that will decide when is the best time to stop sampling the process, and b)~an optimum estimator $\hat{\theta}_{T}$ that will provide the optimum center of the interval estimate of $\theta$. We follow a semi-Bayesian approach, where we assume that there exists a prior distribution for $\theta$, and our goal is to minimize the average number of samples while we guarantee a minimal coverage probability level. The solution is obtained by applying standard optimal stopping theory and computing the optimum pair $(T,\hat{\theta}_{T})$ numerically. Regarding the optimum stopping time component $T$, we demonstrate that it enjoys certain very uncommon characteristics not encountered in solutions of other classical optimal stopping problems. Finally, we compare our method with the optimum fixed-sample-size procedure but also with existing alternative sequential schemes.