A 2 per cent Hubble constant measurement from standard sirens within 5 years

Abstract

Gravitational wave coalescence events provide an entirely new way to determine the Hubble constant, with the absolute distance calibration provided by the theory of general relativity. This standard siren method was utilized to measure the Hubble constant using LIGO-Virgo's detection of the binary neutron-star merger GW170817, as well as optical identifications of the host galaxy, NGC 4993. The novel and independent measurement is of particular interest given the existing tension between the value of the Hubble constant determined using Type Ia supernovae via the local distance ladder ($73.24 \pm 1.74$) and that from Cosmic Microwave Background observations ($66.93 \pm 0.62$) by $\sim 3$ sigma. Local distance ladder observations may achieve a precision of $1\%$ within 5 years, but at present there are no indications that further observations will substantially reduce the existing discrepancies. In addition to clarifying the discrepancy between existing low and high-redshift measurements, a precision measurement of the Hubble constant is of crucial value in elucidating the nature of the dark energy. Here we show that LIGO and Virgo can be expected to constrain the Hubble constant to a precision of $\sim2\%$ within 5 years and $\sim1\%$ within a decade.