Inventory Control with Modulated Demand and a Partially Observed Modulation Process

Abstract

We consider a periodic review inventory control problem having an underlying modulation process that affects demand and that is partially observed by the uncensored demand process and a novel additional observation data (AOD) process. We present an attainability condition, AC, that guarantees the existence of an optimal myopic base stock policy if the reorder cost $K=0$ and the existence of an optimal $(s, S)$ policy if $K>0$, where both policies depend on the belief function of the modulation process. Assuming AC holds, we show that (i) when $K=0$, the value of the optimal base stock level is constant within regions of the belief space and that each region can be described by two linear inequalities and (ii) when $K>0$, the values of $s$ and $S$ and upper and lower bounds on these values are constant within regions of the belief space and that these regions can be described by a finite set of linear inequalities. A heuristic and bounds for the $K=0$ case are presented when AC does not hold. Special cases of this inventory control problem include problems considered in the Markov-modulated demand and Bayesian updating literatures.