Time Series Analysis of the Southern Oscillation Index using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

Abstract

Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) is a regression technique developed by Chipman et al. (2008). Its usefulness in standard regression settings has been clearly demonstrated, but it has not been applied to time series analysis as yet. We discuss the difficulties in applying this technique to time series analysis and demonstrate its superior predictive capabilities in the case of a well know time series: the Southern Oscillation Index.