Batch size selection for variance estimators in MCMC

Abstract

We consider batch size selection for a general class of multivariate batch means variance estimators, which are computationally viable for high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error for this class of estimators. Further, we propose a parametric technique for estimating optimal batch sizes and discuss practical issues regarding the estimating process. Vector auto-regressive, Bayesian logistic regression, and Bayesian dynamic space-time examples illustrate the quality of the estimation procedure where the proposed optimal batch sizes outperform current batch size selection methods.