Prediction in Cyber Security: Complications and Consolations

Abstract

Uncertainty, error, and similar complications add to the many challenges of cyber security. Various disciplines have developed methods for managing these complications, but applying these methods involves disambiguating overlapping terminology and determining a method's proper usage in the context of cyber security, which has unique properties. This process is here guided by the need for prediction, which is required for cyber security to become more like traditional sciences. A motivating malware analysis example is defined. A five-element ontology of complications for prediction is presented, and concepts from numerous disciplines are mapped to it in terms of the motivating example.