A bistable belief dynamics model for radicalization within sectarian conflict

Abstract

We introduce a two-variable model to describe spatial polarization, radicalization, and conflict. Individuals in the model harbor a continuous belief variable as well as a discrete radicalization level expressing their tolerance to neighbors with different beliefs. A novel feature of our model is that it incorporates a bistable radicalization process to address memory-dependent social behavior. We demonstrate how bistable radicalization may explain contradicting observations regarding whether social segregation exacerbates or alleviates conflicts. We also extend our model by introducing a mechanism to include institutional influence, such as propaganda or education, and examine its effectiveness. In some parameter regimes, institutional influence may suppress the progression of radicalization and allow a population to achieve social conformity over time. In other cases, institutional intervention may exacerbate the spread of radicalization through a population of mixed beliefs. In such instances, our analysis implies that social segregation may be a viable option against sectarian conflict.