Shadowing-based data assimilation method for partially observed models

Abstract

In this article we develop further an algorithm for data assimilation based upon a shadowing refinement technique [de Leeuw et al., SIAM J. Appl. Dyn. Sys., 17 (2018)] to take partial observations into account. Our method is based on regularized Gauss-Newton method. We prove local convergence to the solution manifold and provide a lower bound on the algorithmic time step. We use numerical experiments with the Lorenz 63 and Lorenz 96 models to illustrate convergence of the algorithm and show that the results compare favourably with a variational technique (weak-constraint four-dimensional variational method) and a shadowing technique (pseudo-orbit data assimilation). Numerical experiments show that a preconditioner chosen based on a cost function allows the algorithm to find an orbit of the dynamical system in the vicinity of the true solution.