Predictability problem in dynamical systems and in chaotic climate dynamics

Abstract

Predictability horizon properties of chaotic dynamical systems can be related to their spectral properties. It is shown, using this relationship, that the spectral properties of the leading large-scale climate daily indices indicate a smooth predictability: i.e. their intrinsic predictability horizons can be indefinitely extended by reducing the initial error. Special properties of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and some models (including ensemble weather forecasting) have been also discussed in this context.