A unified framework of epidemic spreading prediction by empirical mode decomposition based ensemble learning techniques

Abstract

In this paper, a unified susceptible-exposed-infected-susceptible-aware (SEIS-A) framework is proposed to combine epidemic spreading with individuals' on-line self-consultation behaviors. An epidemic spreading prediction model is established based on the SEIS-A framework. The prediction process contains two phases. In phase I, the time series data of disease density are decomposed through the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to obtain the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). In phase II, the ensemble learning techniques which use the on-line query data as an additional input are applied to these IMFs. Finally, experiments for prediction of weekly consultation rates of Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) in Hong Kong are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The main advantage of this method is that it outperforms other methods on fluctuating complex data.