Embeddability and rate identifiability of Kimura 2-parameter matrices

Abstract

Deciding whether a Markov matrix is embeddable (i.e. can be written as the exponential of a rate matrix) is an open problem even for $4\times 4$ matrices. We study the embedding problem and rate identifiability for the K80 model of nucleotide substitution. For these $4\times 4$ matrices, we fully characterize the set of embeddable K80 Markov matrices and the set of embeddable matrices for which rates are identifiable. In particular, we describe an open subset of embeddable matrices with non-identifiable rates. This set contains matrices with positive eigenvalues and also diagonal largest in column matrices, which might lead to consequences in parameter estimation in phylogenetics. Finally, we compute the relative volumes of embeddable K80 matrices and of embeddable matrices with identifiable rates. This study concludes the embedding problem for the more general model K81 and its submodels, which had been initiated by the last two authors in a separate work.