Two models of double descent for weak features

Abstract

The "double descent" risk curve was proposed to qualitatively describe the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of variably-parameterized machine learning models. This article provides a precise mathematical analysis for the shape of this curve in two simple data models with the least squares/least norm predictor. Specifically, it is shown that the risk peaks when the number of features $p$ is close to the sample size $n$, but also that the risk decreases towards its minimum as $p$ increases beyond $n$. This behavior is contrasted with that of "prescient" models that select features in an a priori optimal order.