Genetic drift in range expansions is very sensitive to density feedback in dispersal and growth

Abstract

Theory predicts rapid genetic drift during invasions, yet many expanding populations maintain high genetic diversity. We find that genetic drift is dramatically suppressed when dispersal rates increase with the population density because many more migrants from the diverse, high-density regions arrive at the expansion edge. When density-dependence is weak or negative, the effective population size of the front scales only logarithmically with the carrying capacity. The dependence, however, switches to a sublinear power law and then to a linear increase as the density-dependence becomes strongly positive. We develop a unified framework revealing that the transitions between different regimes of diversity loss are controlled by a single, universal parameter: the ratio of the expansion velocity to the geometric mean of dispersal and growth rates at expansion edge. Our results suggest that positive density-dependence could dramatically alter evolution in expanding populations even when its contributions to the expansion velocity is small.