A Collision Probability Estimation Algorithm Used in the Space Debris Evolutionary Model

Abstract

An in-depth analysis is performed on the problem that one parameter of the Cube model can affects the final simulation results of space debris long-term evolution model, which weakens the representativeness of the space debris evolution model. We made some improvements and proposed an Improved-Cube (I-Cube) model. By multiple Monte Carlo simulations, it is indicated that the I-Cube model offered a more accurate and more reasonable option for collision probability estimation in the space debris evolution process. The simulation results of space debris long-term evolution model are no longer sensitive to the collision probability estimation model parameters, thus improved the reliability of space debris long-term evolution model.