First passage time for Slepian process with linear barrier

Abstract

In this paper we extend results of L.A. Shepp by finding explicit formulas for the first passage probability $F_{a,b}(T\, |\, x)={\rm Pr}(S(t)<a+bt \text{ for all } t\in[0,T]\,\, | \,\,S(0)=x)$, for all $T>0$, where $S(t)$ is a Gaussian process with mean 0 and covariance $\mathbb{E} S(t)S(t')=\max\{0,1-|t-t'|\}\,.$ We then extend the results to the case of piecewise-linear barriers and outline applications to change-point detection problems. Previously, explicit formulas for $F_{a,b}(T\, |\, x)$ were known only for the cases $b=0$ (constant barrier) or $T\leq 1$ (short interval).