Power law error growth in multi-hierarchical chaotic systems -- a dynamical mechanism for finite prediction horizon in weather forecasts

Abstract

We propose a dynamical mechanism for a scale dependent error growth rate, by the introduction of a class of hierarchical models. The coupling of time scales and length scales is motivated by atmospheric dynamics. This model class can be tuned to exhibit a scale dependent error growth rate in the form of a power law, which translates in power law error growth over time instead of exponential error growth as in conventional chaotic systems. The consequence is a strictly finite prediction horizon, since in the limit of infinitesimal errors of initial conditions, the error growth rate diverges and hence additional accuracy is not translated into longer prediction times. By re-analyzing data of the NCEP Global Forecast System published by Harlim et al.[13] we show that such a power law error growth rate can indeed be found in numerical weather forecast models.