A Recursive Algorithm for Computing Inferences in Imprecise Markov Chains

Abstract

We present an algorithm that can efficiently compute a broad class of inferences for discrete-time imprecise Markov chains, a generalised type of Markov chains that allows one to take into account partially specified probabilities and other types of model uncertainty. The class of inferences that we consider contains, as special cases, tight lower and upper bounds on expected hitting times, on hitting probabilities and on expectations of functions that are a sum or product of simpler ones. Our algorithm exploits the specific structure that is inherent in all these inferences: they admit a general recursive decomposition. This allows us to achieve a computational complexity that scales linearly in the number of time points on which the inference depends, instead of the exponential scaling that is typical for a naive approach.