Rethinking the Micro-Foundation of Opinion Dynamics: Rich Consequences of the Weighted-Median Mechanism

Abstract

To identify the main mechanisms underlying complex opinion formation processes in social systems, researchers have long been exploring simple mechanistic mathematical models. Most existing opinion dynamics models are built on a common micro-foundation, i.e., the weighted-averaging opinion update. However, we argue that this universally-adopted mechanism features a non-negligible unrealistic feature, which brings unnecessary difficulties in seeking a proper balance between model complexity and predictive power. In this paper, we propose the weighted-median mechanism as a new micro-foundation of opinion dynamics, which, with minimal assumptions, fundamentally resolves the inherent unrealistic feature of the weighted-averaging mechanism. Derived from the cognitive dissonance theory in psychology, the weighted-median mechanism is supported by online experiment data and broadens the applicability of opinion dynamics models to multiple-choice issues with ordered discrete options. Moreover, the weighted-median mechanism, despite being the simplest in form, captures various non-trivial real-world features of opinion evolution, while some widely-studied averaging-based models fail to.