Repulsion in controversial debate drives public opinion into fifty-fifty stalemate

Abstract

Opinion formation is a process with strong implications for public policy. In controversial debates with large consequences, the public opinion is often trapped in a fifty-fifty stalemate, jeopardizing broadly accepted political decisions. Emergent effects from millions of private discussions make it hard to understand or influence this kind of opinion dynamics. Here we demonstrate that repulsion from opinions favors fifty-fifty stalemates. We study a voter model where agents can have two opinions or an undecided state in-between. In pairwise discussions, undecided agents can be convinced or repelled from the opinion expressed by another agent. If repulsion happens in at least one of four cases, as in controversial debates, the frequencies of both opinions equalize. Further we include transitions of decided agents to the undecided state. If that happens often, the share of undecided agents becomes large, as can be measured with the share of undecided answers in polls.