Predicting Electricity Consumption using Deep Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract

Electricity consumption has increased exponentially during the past few decades. This increase is heavily burdening the electricity distributors. Therefore, predicting the future demand for electricity consumption will provide an upper hand to the electricity distributor. Predicting electricity consumption requires many parameters. The paper presents two approaches with one using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and another one using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network, which only considers the previous electricity consumption to predict the future electricity consumption. These models were tested on the publicly available London smart meter dataset. To assess the applicability of the RNN and the LSTM network to predict electricity consumption, they were tested to predict for an individual house and a block of houses for a given time period. The predictions were done for daily, trimester and 13 months, which covers short term, mid-term and long term prediction. Both the RNN and the LSTM network have achieved an average Root Mean Square error of 0.1.