Inequalities, chance and success in sport competitions: simulations vs empirical data

Abstract

We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with the results of an agent-based computer model, which assumes that success depends jointly on the intrinsic talent of the agent and on unpredictable luck. We find a small, but non-zero contribution of random luck to the performance of the best sprinters, which may serve as a lower bound for the randomness role in other, less stringently controlled competitive domains. Additionally we discuss the perception of the payoff differences among the top participants, and the role of random luck in the resulting inequality.