Modelling Recovered Cases and Death Probabilities for the COVID-19 Outbreak

Abstract

From March 23rd, the data for the recovered cases of COVID-19 are missing from the standard repository maintained by the Johns Hopkins University in collaboration with the WHO. But since data concerning recovered patients are extremely important for modelling the COVID-19 outbreak, a method for estimating the missing data is provided and tested. As a byproduct, it produces estimates for the probabilities to die $k$ days after confirmation, or to survive after $d$ days.