The D model for deaths by COVID-19

Abstract

We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The 'D' (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known as SI model. It assumes that there is no recovery. In that case the dynamical equations can be solved analytically and the result is extended to describe the D-function that depends on three parameters that we can fit to the data. Results for the data from Spain, Italy and China are presented. The model is validated by comparing with the data of deaths in China, which are well described. This allows to make predictions for the development of the disease in Spain and Italy.