Forecasting COVID 19 growth in India using Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (S.I.R) model
Abstract
This work covers the analysis of the COVID 19 spread in different countries and dealing the main feature of COVID 19 growth, which is the spread due to the social-contact structure, which is governed by the parameter eta. The dependency of this parameter eta on the transmission level in society gives a sense of the effectiveness of the measures taken for social distancing. A separate algorithm is hardcoded in python using Scipy which learns the social-contact structure and gives a suitable value for eta, which has a major impact on the outcome of the result. Forecasting for the epidemic spread in India was done, and it was found that the strictness at which social distancing in India is done, is insufficient for the growth of COVID 19.
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