An Epidemic Model SIPHERD and its application for prediction of the spread of COVID-19 infection for India and USA

Abstract

We propose an epidemic model SIPHERD in which three categories of infection carriers Symptomatic, Purely Asymptomatic, and Exposed are considered with different rates of transmission of infection that are taken dependent on the lockdown and social distancing. The rate of detection of the infected carriers is taken dependent on the tests done per day. The model is applied for the COVID outbreak in Germany and South Korea to validate its predictive capabilities and then applied to India and the United States for the prediction of its spread with different lockdown situations and testing in the coming months.