Propagation of epidemics along lines with fast diffusion
Abstract
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of propagation of epidemics which exhibits this effect and allows for a quantitative analysis. The model consists of a classical SIR model with diffusion, to which an additional compartment is added, formed by the infected individuals travelling on a line of fast diffusion. Exchanges between individuals on the line and in the rest of the domain are taken into account. A classical transformation allows us to reduce the proposed model to a system analogous to one we had previously introduced [5] to describe the enhancement of biological invasions by lines of fast diffusion. We establish the existence of a minimal spreading speed and we show that it may be quite large, even when the basic reproduction number R0 is close to 1. More subtle qualitative features of the final state, showing the important influence of the line, are also proved here.