Probabilistic Forecasting of Patient Waiting Times in an Emergency Department

Abstract

We study the estimation of the probability distribution of individual patient waiting times in an emergency department (ED). Our feature-rich modelling allows for dynamic updating and refinement of waiting time estimates as patient- and ED-specific information (e.g., patient condition, ED congestion levels) is revealed during the waiting process. Aspects relating to communicating forecast uncertainty to patients, and implementing this methodology in practice, are also discussed.