Atmospheric CO2 and total electricity production before and during the nation-wide restriction of activities as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract
In this paper, we analysed real-time measurements of atmospheric CO2 with total electricity production and nation-wide restrictions phases due to the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, and its effects on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. A decline of 3.7% in the global energy demand at about 150 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in the first quarter (Q1), of 2020 was recorded, as compared to the same first quarter (Q1), of 2019, due to the cutback on global economic activities. Our results showed that: 1) electricity production for the same period in the years 2018, 2019, and 2020, shrunk at an offset of about 9.20%, which resulted in the modest reduction of about (-1.79%), in the atmospheric CO2, to that of 2017-2018 CO2 level; 2) a non-seasonal abrupt; but brief, atmospheric CO2 decrease by about 0.85% in mid-February 2020, could be due to the Phase 1 movement restrictions in China. The results showed that, the reduction in electricity production is significant to the short-term variability of atmospheric CO2. It also highlights the significant contributions from China to the atmospheric CO2, which suggests that, without the national restriction of activities, CO2 concentration are set to exceed 2019 by 1.79%, but it quickly decreased due to the lockdown, and sustained the reduction for two consecutive months. The results underscore the atmospheric CO2 reductions on the monthly time scale that can be achieved, if electricity production from combustible sources were slashed, which could be useful for cost-benefit analyses of the reduction in electricity production from combustible sources, and the impact of these reduction to the atmospheric CO2.