Modeling and Simulation of COVID-19 Pandemic for Cincinnati Tri-State Area

Abstract

In this paper, we use SIR model to simulate the COVID-19 pandemic for Cincinnati Tri-State Area. We have built a representative population of Cincinnati that includes movements for traveling to stores, schools, workplaces, and traveling to friends houses. Using this model, we simulate the effect of quarantine, return to work, and panic buying. We show that that there will be a second wave of infections when people return to work and significant increase in number of infections when there is panic buying at stores with the announcement of the quarantine measures.