Scheduling fixed length quarantines to minimize the total number of fatalities during an epidemic

Abstract

We consider a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) system where the transmission rate may be temporarily reduced for a fixed amount of time. We show that in order to minimize the total number of fatalities, the transmission rate should be reduced on a single contiguous time interval, and we characterize this interval via an integral condition. We conclude with a few numerical simulations showing the actual reduction obtained.