A simplified estimate of the Effective Reproduction Number Rt using its relation with the doubling time and application to Italian COVID-19 data
Abstract
A simplified method to compute Rt, the Effective Reproduction Number, is presented. The method relates the value of Rt to the estimation of the doubling time performed with a local exponential fit. The condition Rt = 1 corresponds to a growth rate equal to zero or equivalently an infinite doubling time. Different assumptions on the probability distribution of the generation time are considered. A simple analytical solution is presented in case the generation time follows a gamma distribution.
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